After months of waiting, the NBA playoffs finally start this afternoon. This post is going up super last minute, so I hope most of this still holds relevant when I upload it. I don’t have a clear plan for this, so I’m going to just put some thoughts out on each team and matchup, and hopefully it’s cohesive.
Western Conference
#1 Los Angeles Lakers
This will be a quick one. On paper, I think they’re the best team in the league. They have two of the top ~7 players in the league. They have a supporting cast that mostly fits. LeBron has gotten more rest going into the playoffs than he ever has. I think he’s ready for the grind. They have a lot of frontcourt and wing depth. Their main issue is at guard. With Avery Bradley opting out and Rajon Rondo injured, I’m not sure how they’ll consistently defend high volume guards like Lillard and McCollum in Round 1 and Harden and Westbrook or CP3, SGA, and Schroeder in Round 2. I think every game this team plays is must-watch TV.
#8 Portland Trail Blazers
I think the Blazers are the team that everyone fell in love with during the seeding games. Damian Lillard proved that he’s a legitimate superstar and a top 10 player in this league. Jusuf Nurkic has come back better than ever. Their big man and guard rotations are great, but their lack of wings really hurts them defensively. It’s unfortunate for us that they have to play the Lakers, and almost certainly will get knocked out. At least we’ll get to enjoy 4 or 5 more games of Lillard.
#4 Houston Rockets
I think Houston has the broadest range of possible outcomes. They could conceivably win the title, or get swept in Round 1. This is the weirdest team in the playoffs by far. This season could be Harden’s chance to change his career’s narrative. We haven’t gotten many games of this extreme small ball to truly know if it works or not. I love it. I think teams should be experimenting like this more often. I think the biggest factor for them is Westbrook. If we get the Westbrook from majority of the regular season, this team is a legitimate title threat. I think this season was the best version of Russ we’ve ever seen. Their matchup with OKC is the Round 1 series I’m most excited for.
#5 Oklahoma City Thunder
This team was the surprise of the season. I thought they were an obvious “blow it up and tank” team. But they’ve completely proven me, and majority of the world wrong. Their players have completely bought into Billy Donovan’s plans. They play a lot of creative lineups. They have at least two point guards on the floor nearly all the time. They’re efficient, they play great defense, and they get contributions from their whole lineup. Chris Paul looks to be playing some of his most inspired basketball of his career and is having one of the greatest clutch seasons in NBA history. Dennis Schroeder has really rejuvenated his career; he’s finally playing defense again. He’s also my pick for Sixth Man of the year. SGA has grown so much this season and is likely the future face of the franchise. I’m excited to see if they utilize Andre Roberson at all. He’ll be extremely useful in guarding Harden. One of my favorite players for them this year has been Luguentz Dort. He’s a small tank, who has lockdown defender potential. My biggest question for this series is whether OKC will let Houston dictate OKC’s rotation. Will Steven Adams be playable? Will Gallinari be playing the 5 in crunch time?As much as I love Houston, I’d be thrilled to see this team advance to face the Lakers in Round 2
#3 Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are such an interesting team right now. Their whole identity has shifted during the seeding games. Michael Porter Jr. looks like an offensive superstar. His fit with Jokic looks great. They had a lot of injuries so we never saw what they really look like. They need Harris and Barton to be at 100% of they want to contend. Their roster has a lot of talented depth, which should be more valuable this postseason than past years. I don’t really think Utah stands a chance here.
#6 Utah Jazz
Utah has had a lot of things go wrong for them. If there was no stoppage, they could’ve been second tier contenders. They have a really strong lineup. But Bojan Bogdanovic went down with injury, and Mike Conley Jr. will miss time due to the birth of his child in Ohio. I’m not a huge fan of the remainder of this roster. I think they’re probably the worst playoff team in the West. They basically need Mitchell to play like a superstar every night, which is unlikely to happen.
#2 Los Angeles Clippers
When this lineup is complete, I think they’re the best team in the league. They have the tools to matchup with anyone. They can go big or small. They have scoring and defense in their starting five and coming off the bench. Kawhi Leonard was the best player in the world last postseason. While he wasn’t healthy for most of this year, Paul George still can be a two-way star if he finds his rhythm. I think they’ll figure it out and go far.
#7 Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is such a weird team. They’re one of the greatest offensive teams in NBA history, but they’re horrendous on defense. I think the Clippers are a horrible matchup for the Mavs. Luka will never get a possession without a great defender on him. I am still excited to get a first look at Luka in the playoffs. He’s one of the best young players in the league and he’s coming off an unbelievable season, and some great performances in the seeding games. They really struggle in the clutch moments. I don’t think they stand a chance with the Clips.
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee Bucks
This is pretty straight forward. They were the best team in the league throughout the season. Giannis is an easy MVP pick. He’s probably also the Defensive Player of the Year. They have a really strong two-way lineup. Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe are both All-Defense-caliber players. They’ve been so dominant this year. I just feel like sometimes they have periods where they can’t do anything. Sometimes it happens with Giannis on the floor, sometimes without. I think they’re still favorites to get out of the East, and they have very high title odds.
#8 Orlando Magic
I’ll keep this short. The Magic aren’t very good. They’re going to lose to the Bucks in 4 or 5 games. They have a couple places of optimism. Evan Fournier and Markelle Fultz are real pieces to build around. Vucevic and Gordon are good too, but I just don’t know how foundational they are. I have faith in Bamba too, but it’s dwindling. They’re not very good right now, but they could have promise in a couple years.
#4 Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are another team that have changed their identity during the seeding games. With Sabonis out, they’ve been playing much smaller. TJ Warren all of a sudden looks like an All-Star. They’re such an interesting team. They’re not the most fun to watch, but they’re very good. It seems like no one in the media thinks they stand a chance against Miami. I’m picking Miami too, but I think this series goes 6 or 7.
#5 Miami Heat
Miami is a really interesting team to analyze. They have a really talented roster. They have two star players, and a lot of great role players. Jimmy Butler is somehow a superstar without being able to hit jumpshots. Bam is the best playmaking big in the East, and is an elite defensive big. I have a love/hate relationship with them. I really like individual pieces, but I don’t like watching them play very much. I’m very excited to watch them play Milwaukee in Round 2. They’ve had their number all year, and probably will give them a scare.
#3 Boston Celtics
I’m really excited to see this team play. Jayson Tatum is on the brink of being a star, and this postseason could be where he reaches that level. They have arguably the best wing rotation in the league led by Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward. Their backcourt is really good too with Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker. Kemba’s recurring knee issues could become a problem for the Celtics. They play Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter at the 5. Both are good, neither are great. Embiid might be able to really take advantage of that in Round 1. They’d have a really fun matchup with Toronto in Round 2. This team has title aspirations. It is possible, but the road is very difficult.
#6 Philadelphia 76ers
Philly is really frustrating to me. They have so much talent, but it seems like nothing fits together. When he’s on, Embiid is a top 5 player in the league, The problem is that he isn’t on consistently. I weirdly think they might play better now without Simmons, at least on offense. Defensively, losing Simmons is massive, because he’s probably their main defender on Jayson Tatum. I think they can take a few games. I just don’t think they’ll win the series.
#2 Toronto Raptors
First off, this is my favorite team in the league right now, so my brain might be on some sort of tilt right now. I think the Raptors have a very real shot at repeating as champions. They really remind me of the early 2010’s Spurs. I think their biggest strength is that they never let up on defense. Everyone they play puts in effort. Siakam and VanVleet have taken massive steps up this season, and have helped fill Kawhi’s void. Their vets: Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka are playing well on both ends. Norman Powell and OG Anunoby have emerged has solid contributors. They even solid minutes from guys that most people haven’t heard of, like Chris Boucher, Matt Thomas, and Terence Davis. The big question is if they can get a bucket late in close games. Last year, Kawhi was the go-to guy. We don’t know if they have that right now. I think their championship experience, defense, and having the best coach in the league still makes them a top tier contender.
#7 Brooklyn Nets
Keeping this one quick too. Brooklyn really impressed during the seeding games. But I don’t think they stand a chance here. Caris LeVert really boosted his stock, and might be leading a different team a few months from now. This series is more about assessing the future for Brooklyn.
Final Picks
Realistically, the Finals will be some combination of an LA team vs the Bucks. I’m thinking it’ll be the Lakers over Bucks in 6 games. But I want to be a little bold. My Finals pick is Raptors over Clippers. It sounds a little too poetic to actually happen, but it would be so satisfying.
Tweet or DM me your thoughts on this post. Who do you think will win it all? Who do you think I’m overrating and underrating?
The Kaba Report 